By Hotgist9ja News Desk | Breaking News | Politics
President Bola Tinubu has said what every Nigerian already knows in their bones — and hearing it from the President's own mouth, on Eid morning, while surrounded by 23 state governors, makes it land differently.
The Middle East war is coming for Nigerian wallets. And the President has admitted it.
Speaking at his Lagos residence during the Eid el-Fitr celebrations on Sunday, where he hosted Vice President Kashim Shettima and governors from across the country, Tinubu did not sugarcoat it. He looked around the room at Nigeria's most powerful political figures and said words that will be quoted for weeks:
"We should care more for the vulnerable. I know this Middle East crisis will spike inflation and affect our purchasing power. The labour union and others will be gearing to ask us to support more due to the effect of the Middle East war and crisis."
— President Bola Tinubu, speaking at Eid el-Fitr gathering, Lagos
For a president whose administration has consistently maintained that Nigeria's economy is on the path to recovery — this was a moment of rare public candour. And Nigerians on social media are not letting it pass quietly.
The Setting — Twenty-Three Governors, One Table, One Hard Truth
The Eid el-Fitr gathering at Tinubu's Lagos residence was significant even before the President spoke. Twenty-three state governors had made the journey to Lagos to pay their respects — a turnout that his spokesperson Sulaiman Bala Idris described as evidence of "sincerity, commitment and value for friendship and togetherness."
Among those present were Governors Hope Uzodinma of Imo, Alex Otti of Abia, Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom, Douye Diri of Bayelsa, Hyacinth Alia of Benue, Bassey Otu of Cross River, Monday Okpebholo of Edo, Peter Mbah of Enugu, and Mohammed Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe — among others.
President Tinubu and First Lady Oluremi Tinubu had returned just two days earlier from a three-day state visit to the United Kingdom — the first Nigerian presidential state visit to Britain in 37 years — where King Charles III and Queen Camilla hosted them. Tinubu had also held talks with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, focusing on security cooperation and economic partnerships.
It was in this context — fresh from London, surrounded by governors, on the morning of Nigeria's biggest Islamic celebration — that Tinubu chose to address the economic storm that is gathering on Nigeria's horizon.
What Tinubu Said — And What He Asked Governors To Do
Beyond acknowledging the inflation threat, Tinubu gave the assembled governors specific instructions on how to respond to the economic pressure that is coming.
He urged state executives to provide incentives to cushion the inflationary impact of the Middle East war on energy and transportation prices. He asked them to translate their ideas into policies that directly improve citizens' lives. And he warned them to support federal efforts in tackling what he described as the "tyranny" of criminals — noting that insecurity and economic hardship are deeply linked.
On security — which he described as "the next phase of our struggle" — Tinubu revealed that his UK visit had focused specifically on securing modern security interventions for Nigeria. He disclosed that he had personally followed up on support for security technology with French President Emmanuel Macron, and that discussions on state police are ongoing with various security agencies led by the National Security Adviser.
"Together, we must see that the issue of insecurity comes to an end," Tinubu told the governors. "The NGF will take the state police document to the National Assembly to see how we can have a legislative framework."
The Numbers Behind The Warning — What The Experts Are Already Saying
Tinubu's warning is not just political rhetoric. It is backed by hard economic analysis from Nigeria's leading financial experts — who have been sounding the alarm about the Middle East war's impact on Nigerian households for weeks.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, put it plainly when he spoke to Vanguard earlier this week:
"The escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has injected a new wave of geopolitical risk into the global economy. Energy markets are the first transmission channel. For Nigeria, an oil-dependent economy where crude accounts for over 85 percent of export earnings and about half of government revenue, the implications are significant. The most immediate domestic risk lies in inflation transmission. Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream petroleum regime. Higher international crude prices feed directly into higher petrol, diesel and aviation fuel costs."
— Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise
Oluropo Dada, President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, was even more specific about what ordinary Nigerians should brace for:
"Transportation fares could increase by 20 to 40 percent, which will immediately affect food prices. Since low-income households spend about 60 to 70 percent of their income on food and transport, even a 10 to 15 percent rise in prices significantly reduces their purchasing power. Food inflation could reverse its downward trend and rise by another 5 to 8 percentage points, worsening hardship for the poor."
— Oluropo Dada, President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers
A macro report by Comercio Partners titled "Hormuz Shock, Nigerian Oil: Price Spike Offers Limited Upside" explained that for Nigeria, the effects of the Hormuz crisis will be transmitted mainly through oil revenue, exchange rate liquidity, inflation and capital flows — noting that while higher oil prices boost government revenue, the downstream impact on consumers is almost entirely negative.
The Cruel Irony — Nigeria Produces Oil But Suffers From High Oil Prices
Here is the painful paradox that every Nigerian understands but that no government spokesperson ever quite articulates clearly enough.
Nigeria is an oil-producing nation. When global oil prices rise because of the Middle East crisis, Nigeria's government technically earns more revenue. The 2026 federal budget was benchmarked at $65 per barrel — and with Brent crude currently at $112, every barrel of oil Nigeria exports generates almost double the projected revenue.
But those windfalls do not reach ordinary Nigerians at the pump or in the market. What reaches them is the reality of a deregulated downstream sector where international crude prices translate directly into higher petrol prices — as Dangote's four price hikes in March alone have demonstrated. Our earlier reporting showed that fuel prices jumped from N774 to N1,245 per litre in just three weeks — a 61% increase that has already hit transport costs, food prices and business operating costs across the country.
It is the classic Nigerian oil curse, playing out in real time. The government earns more. The people pay more. And the gap between both realities is where Nigerian hardship lives.
What The Opposition Is Saying
The People's Democratic Party responded to the Middle East economic threat with a statement that placed the crisis in a broader context:
"For Nigeria, which has only recently begun to record encouraging signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, the crisis represents a significant external shock and a potential setback to some of the gains recorded in recent months. Disruptions in global supply chains, volatility in energy markets, and rising costs in international trade may place additional pressure on inflation, exchange rate stability, and fiscal planning."
— PDP statement on Middle East economic impact
The party called for economic diversification, strengthening of domestic production, fiscal discipline and structural reforms as the appropriate response — a position that essentially agrees with the government's stated direction while questioning the pace and sincerity of implementation.
What Jigawa Governor Said — The Measures Being Rolled Out
While Tinubu was speaking in Lagos, Governor Umar Namadi of Jigawa State — speaking after hosting the Emir of Dutse for Eid celebrations — provided a glimpse of what the federal government is planning in response to the economic pressure.
According to a statement by his Chief Press Secretary, Hamisu Muhammad Gumel, Namadi told residents that President Tinubu is "deeply concerned" about the rising cost of living and that steps are already being rolled out to ease the burden — particularly in the area of transportation.
The details of these measures have not yet been made public. But the acknowledgement from multiple government voices — including the President himself — that a crisis is coming represents a shift in tone from the more optimistic messaging that has characterised the administration's economic communications in recent months.
What Nigerians Are Saying — Social Media Reacts
When Tinubu's Eid speech began circulating on Nigerian social media, the reactions came fast and hard — with most Nigerians focusing on what they described as the gap between the admission and the action.
"Tinubu said the Middle East crisis will spike inflation and affect our purchasing power. My guy — it already has. Fuel is N1,245. Transport is up. Food is up. What are you going to do about it?"
— Twitter/X user, Lagos
"At least he said the truth. Most Nigerian presidents would blame the opposition for rising prices. He admitted the Middle East war is causing it. That is step one."
— Facebook user
"23 governors at his house for Eid. All of them eating and celebrating while the people they govern cannot afford to eat. And then he warns of inflation. The irony is too much."
— Twitter/X user
"Labour union will ask for more support — he said it himself. So why not just increase the minimum wage proactively instead of waiting for strikes? This country."
— Instagram comment
"The Middle East crisis is real and the impact on Nigeria is real. But the government needs to tell us specifically what it is doing — not just acknowledge the problem."
— Twitter/X user, Abuja
Key Facts At A Glance
| Detail | Fact |
| Where Tinubu spoke | His Lagos residence, Eid el-Fitr gathering |
| Who was present | VP Shettima and 23 state governors |
| Current fuel price | N1,245 per litre (Dangote gantry price) |
| Fuel price increase in March | 61% — from N774 to N1,245 in 21 days |
| Current Brent crude price | ~$112 per barrel |
| Nigeria's budget benchmark | $65 per barrel |
| Nigeria's inflation rate (Feb 2026) | 15.06% — NBS |
| Low-income household spending on food/transport | 60-70% of income — CIS President |
| Projected transport fare increase | 20-40% — CIS President |
What Happens Next — And What Nigerians Need To Watch
Tinubu's admission on Eid morning sets up several important moments in the coming weeks. Labour unions — as the President himself predicted — are likely to intensify demands for wage increases and cost-of-living support. The NLC and TUC have been relatively quiet since the latest round of fuel price increases. That quiet may not last long.
The governors who attended Sunday's gathering have been tasked with providing cushioning incentives on energy and transportation at the state level. How many of them actually deliver on that — and how quickly — will be one of the most important stories of the coming months.
And the global picture remains volatile. With Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran expiring on Monday evening — as we reported — the Strait of Hormuz crisis could escalate further, pushing oil prices even higher and deepening the inflationary pressure that Tinubu has already acknowledged is coming for Nigerian wallets.
As we continue to follow every development in the Middle East crisis and its impact on Nigeria — from the Trump 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to the joint statement by six world powers on the Strait of Hormuz — the story of what this war means for ordinary Nigerians remains at the heart of everything we report.
In Pidgin — As Naija People Dey See Am
So the President gather 23 governors for him Lagos house on Eid morning. Big celebration, big food, big gathering. And in the middle of everything, Tinubu open him mouth and say — the Middle East crisis go spike inflation and affect our purchasing power.
Naija people immediately ask the obvious question — spike? SPIKE? Mr President, e don already spike. Fuel don go from N774 to N1,245 in three weeks. Transport don increase. Food don increase. Light bill don increase. What exactly are we waiting for?
To be fair — at least he admitted it. Most politicians go deny the thing or blame opposition. Tinubu look 23 governors in the eye and say — labour union go come ask us for more, and we must support the vulnerable. That na honesty, even if e come late.
But Naija people no want honesty alone. They want action. They want to know — what exactly are those governors going to do to cushion this inflation? What are the "measures being rolled out" that Jigawa governor mentioned? When are we going to see them?
The President has spoken. The economists have warned. The numbers don't lie. Now the question is whether the government's response will match the scale of what is coming. Nigerians are watching — and they are tired of watching. 🦅🇳🇬
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Sources: Punch, PM News, Vanguard, Daily Trust, Politics Nigeria, Premium Times, Channels TV