4th Time In March: Dangote Hikes Fuel Price To N1,245 — From N774 To N1,245 In Three Weeks, What Is Happening And Who Is Paying The Price?
By Hotgist9ja News Desk | Business | Breaking News
Okay. Stop what you are doing. Because this one affects every single Nigerian — whether you drive a car, take a bus, buy food in the market or run a business. Every single one of us.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery — the same refinery that was supposed to end Nigeria's fuel price wahala — has just announced its fourth fuel price hike in the month of March alone. The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit has jumped from N1,175 per litre to N1,245 per litre — a N70 increase that takes effect from today, Saturday March 21.
But here is the part that should make every Nigerian stop and think. Just three weeks ago, at the beginning of this same month of March, Dangote's fuel was selling at approximately N774 per litre.
In three weeks. In ONE month. The price has gone from N774 to N1,245. That is an increase of N471 per litre — a 61% jump — in 21 days.
Let that sink in. 😳
📋 The Official Notice — What Dangote Said
In a notice sent to petroleum marketers on Friday night — obtained by our correspondent — the Dangote Petroleum Refinery stated:
"Please be informed that due to the current global geo-political situation, which has further escalated, the PMS gantry and coastal prices have been reviewed and updated as outlined below."
— Dangote Petroleum Refinery notice to marketers
The specifics of the new pricing structure are as follows:
- ⛽ Gantry price: N1,175 → N1,245 per litre (increase of N70)
- ⛽ Coastal price: N1,512,648 → N1,606,518 per metric tonne
- 📅 Effective from: Midnight, Saturday March 21, 2026
- 💳 Payment deadline for marketers: Monday March 23, 2026
The refinery also clarified that marketers with existing bank guarantees can continue loading products under previous approvals — provided their credit balance covers the price differential. Any shortfall will be recovered through debit notes.
📈 How We Got Here — The Full Price Progression In March
To truly understand the scale of what is happening, you need to see the full picture of how Dangote's fuel price has moved this month:
| Date | Price Per Litre | Increase |
| Early March 2026 | ~N774 | Starting point |
| First hike — March | N875 | +N101 |
| Second hike — March | N995 | +N120 |
| Third hike — March | N1,175 | +N180 |
| Fourth hike — March 21 | N1,245 | +N70 |
| Total increase in March | +N471 per litre — 61% jump in 21 days | |
These are gantry prices — the ex-depot rates that petroleum marketers pay at the refinery. By the time fuel reaches filling stations nationwide, pump prices are expected to surge to between N1,331 and N1,400 per litre — up from N1,261 to N1,330 that was being charged on Friday night in Abuja.
🌍 Why Is This Happening? — The Iran-Israel-US War Connection
Dangote has been consistent in its explanation — and the explanation is real, even if it is painful. The fuel price hike is directly connected to the ongoing Iran-Israel-US conflict and its impact on global crude oil prices.
Since the launch of joint U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes — has been effectively closed. Brent crude has surged to approximately $112 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate has climbed to around $98 per barrel.
Dangote Refinery, despite being Nigeria's largest and most important domestic refinery, is not immune to global crude oil prices. It purchases crude oil at international market rates — and when those rates rise sharply due to geopolitical shocks, the cost of producing refined petroleum products rises with them. The refinery has no choice but to pass a portion of those costs downstream to marketers — who in turn pass them to consumers.
As we reported earlier this week, six major world powers including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Japan have issued a joint statement demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but until that happens, Nigeria's fuel prices will continue to feel the tremors of a war being fought thousands of kilometres away.
🧑🏫 What The Experts Are Saying
Two of Nigeria's most respected petroleum economics experts weighed in on the development — and their assessments are worth reading carefully.
Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare:
"The Dangote fuel price hike reflects global oil market realities rather than domestic policy failures. Fuel prices in a deregulated market are closely linked to international crude oil prices. What we are experiencing is the direct consequence of the global shock caused by the Iran-US-Israel war. This is not a situation that Dangote or the Nigerian government created — it is an external shock that a deregulated market must absorb and reflect in pricing."
— Prof. Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics
Professor Godwin Oyedokun, Lead City University:
"The latest increase in petrol price to about N1,245 per litre reflects a deeper global crisis rather than a purely domestic pricing decision. The surge is largely driven by rising crude oil prices, particularly Brent crude, which has climbed significantly due to geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions. Speaking on the implications for Nigeria, the effects are already being felt across the economy — transportation costs are rising, food prices are climbing and household budgets are under severe strain."
— Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, Professor of Accounting and Finance, Lead City University
Spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) and the Natural Oil and Gas Suppliers Association of Nigeria (NOGASA), Chinedu Ukadike, confirmed the latest hike and warned consumers to brace themselves for corresponding increases at filling stations across the country.
💔 What This Means For Ordinary Nigerians — The Real Impact
The numbers in the official notice are cold and technical. But behind them is a human story — the story of millions of ordinary Nigerians who are now facing an impossible squeeze between rising fuel prices, a weakened naira and stagnant wages.
For the average Lagos commuter: Transport fares are about to rise again. Danfo and BRT operators pass fuel costs directly to passengers. The journey that cost N200 two months ago could soon cost N350 or more.
For market traders and food vendors: The cost of transporting goods from farms and warehouses to markets is going up. That cost will be passed to consumers. The tomatoes, pepper, rice and yam that were expensive last week will be even more expensive next week.
For small business owners: Generators run on fuel. Electricity remains unreliable across Nigeria. Every N70 increase per litre is money taken directly out of small business margins — margins that were already razor-thin.
For transport operators: Bus owners, truck drivers, motorcycle riders — every fuel price increase is a direct attack on their livelihoods. Many are already struggling. Some are beginning to question whether operating their vehicles is still economically viable.
For manufacturers: Raw material transportation costs rise. Energy costs rise. Production costs rise. Prices of manufactured goods rise. The inflationary spiral tightens another turn.
This comes at a time when Nigerians are already grappling with severe economic pressure — as we documented in our recent investigation showing that cooking gas in Nigeria now costs more than in Saudi Arabia, Russia and India despite far lower minimum wages.
🤔 The Broken Promise — What Happened To "Stable Prices"?
Here is the question that many Nigerians are asking — and it deserves a direct answer.
When the Dangote Petroleum Refinery came on stream, it was celebrated as the solution to Nigeria's perennial fuel crisis. The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery — the largest in Africa — was supposed to end Nigeria's dependence on imported refined petroleum products, stabilise domestic supply and reduce price volatility.
By February 2026, Dangote was supplying approximately 61% of Nigeria's domestic petrol demand — about 39.6 million litres per day. This is genuinely significant. The refinery IS working. It IS reducing imports. It IS supplying the majority of Nigerians' fuel needs.
But the current crisis has exposed a fundamental limitation that was always embedded in the promise of price stability: a deregulated market that sources crude at international prices will always be vulnerable to international price shocks. The Dangote Refinery is not a magic shield against global oil market volatility — it is a participant in that market.
Critics argue that Nigeria's deregulation policy — removing fuel subsidies and allowing market pricing — has left ordinary citizens exposed to international shocks without adequate social protection mechanisms. Supporters counter that subsidies were fiscally unsustainable and that the refinery, despite current price pressures, represents long-term structural improvement for Nigeria's energy security.
Both sides have a point. But for the transport worker who needs to fill his tank this Saturday morning — the debate is academic. The pain is real.
📱 How Nigerians Are Reacting
As expected, social media has been on fire since the news broke. Nigerians are not happy — and they are not staying quiet.
"N774 to N1,245 in 21 days. And salaries have not moved in years. How are we supposed to survive in this country? This is wickedness wrapped in economics."
— Twitter/X user
"I remember when they said the Dangote refinery will reduce fuel price. Now same refinery don hike price four times in one month. Wetin we gain?"
— Facebook user, Lagos
"The Iran-Israel war is the reason? So Nigeria's economy is now held hostage by a war we have nothing to do with? This is what happens when you have no energy independence."
— Twitter/X user
"My transport fare to work has gone up three times this month. My landlord has increased my rent. Fuel is now N1,245. My salary is still the same. I am genuinely scared."
— Instagram comment
"The professors are saying it is global oil reality. Okay. But Nigeria produces oil. We are an oil-producing nation paying $112 per barrel prices for our own fuel. Something is fundamentally wrong with that picture."
— Twitter/X user
"Dangote is a businessman. He will sell at the price the market dictates. The real question is — where is the government's intervention to protect ordinary Nigerians from this shock? That is the question nobody is answering."
— Facebook user, Abuja
🔮 What To Expect Next
Industry analysts and petroleum marketers have warned that the worst may not be over. As long as the Iran-Israel-US conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, global crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated — and Dangote's ex-depot prices will continue to reflect that reality.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has not yet issued guidance on recommended retail pump prices following the latest hike. Marketers are expected to adjust their prices over the weekend — meaning Nigerians filling up at petrol stations from Saturday onward should expect prices between N1,331 and N1,400 per litre in most major cities.
For those watching the escalating US weapons sales to Gulf nations and the broader Middle East situation — Nigeria's fuel price story is a reminder that global geopolitics never stays neatly in foreign capitals. It arrives in Nigerian markets, on Nigerian roads and in Nigerian households. Every barrel of crude that cannot flow through Hormuz is eventually felt at a Lagos filling station.
🗣️ In Pidgin — As Naija People Dey See Am
Naija, make we talk straight. No grammar. No economic theory. Just the plain truth.
For the beginning of this month — just three weeks ago — Dangote fuel dey sell around N774. Today, same fuel don reach N1,245. That na 61% increase for 21 days. Four times dem hike am. FOUR TIMES. In one month.
The reason dem give — Iran-Israel war don affect global crude oil price. Brent crude don reach $112 per barrel. The war for Middle East don reach our pocket here for Nigeria.
The professors talk say na global reality — and e true to some extent. But the question wey ordinary Naija person dey ask is different from what professor dey ask. The ordinary person dey ask — my salary never increase for three years. Transport don go up. Food don go up. Rent don go up. Generator fuel don go up. Now petrol don go up again. Where the money go come from?
That na the question wey no professor and no government spokesman don answer properly.
For market women, for bus drivers, for boda-boda riders, for factory workers wey dey trek because transport too expensive — this N1,245 fuel price na serious matter. Na not just numbers on a notice. Na life wey dey get harder every week.
We go keep watching. We go keep reporting. And we go keep speaking for the ordinary Nigerian wey the economic textbooks always forget. 🦅🇳🇬
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Sources: Punch, Daily Post, Blueprint Newspapers, Naija247News, Vanguard, Premium Times, NMDPRA