Oil prices are heading for their biggest weekly gain in years as of Friday March 13, 2026 — refusing to be tamed despite a series of dramatic emergency measures from the United States government designed to flood the market with additional supply and bring prices back under control.
Brent crude — the international benchmark used to price most of the world's oil — rose to $100.56 per barrel in early Friday trading in Asia, putting it on course for a 9% weekly gain — its strongest weekly performance since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. US West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $95.57 per barrel, also headed for a 7% weekly gain.
The resilience of oil prices came despite the United States issuing an extraordinary emergency measure on Thursday night — a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing countries around the world to purchase Russian crude oil and petroleum products currently stranded on tankers at sea. The waiver was announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just hours after Brent crude smashed through the $100 per barrel barrier — a psychologically and economically significant threshold that signals severe global energy stress.
What Is The Russian Oil Waiver — And Why Is The US Doing This?
To understand why the United States is temporarily allowing the purchase of sanctioned Russian oil, it is important to understand the extraordinary pressure on global energy markets right now.
Since the US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026 — triggering the ongoing Middle East war now in its fourteenth day — Iran has retaliated by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes. Iran has also attacked commercial tankers, targeted oil export terminals in Oman and Iraq, and struck Dubai International Airport — creating what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has described as the largest oil supply disruption in history.
With so much Middle Eastern oil suddenly unable to reach global markets, the world urgently needs alternative sources of supply. One of those alternative sources is Russia — which has large quantities of crude oil loaded onto tankers floating at sea across 30 different locations globally, unable to be sold because of Western sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
According to CNBC, there are approximately 124 million barrels of Russian oil currently stranded at sea — enough for about five to six days of global supply. By issuing a 30-day waiver allowing countries to purchase that stranded oil, the US is trying to unlock that supply and get it to refineries as quickly as possible.
The license, posted on the US Treasury Department's website on Thursday night, authorises the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels as of March 12, 2026. It is valid through midnight Washington time on April 11, 2026. Bessent described the measure as "narrowly tailored" and "short-term", insisting it would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government because Moscow collects most of its oil revenue at the point of extraction rather than at the point of sale.
Trump Has Already Tried Four Things — And None Have Worked
Thursday's Russian oil waiver is the latest in a series of emergency energy measures from the Trump administration — and it joins a growing list of interventions that have so far failed to break the upward momentum in oil prices.
The first intervention came on Wednesday, when the US Energy Department announced it would release 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve — one of the largest SPR releases in American history. That announcement briefly caused oil prices to dip, but the relief lasted less than 24 hours before prices surged again.
The second intervention was coordinated internationally. The International Energy Agency — a 32-nation energy security organisation — agreed to release a combined 400 million barrels from member nations' strategic reserves, including the US contribution. This unprecedented collective release was announced Thursday. Oil prices climbed anyway.
The third intervention was the US Navy. President Trump ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf — and said the US Navy could escort commercial ships through the region to protect them from Iranian attack.
The fourth intervention is the Jones Act waiver under consideration. The White House confirmed it is looking at temporarily waiving the Jones Act — a US law that restricts the transport of goods between American ports to American-flagged vessels — to allow foreign ships to carry fuel between US ports, potentially speeding energy deliveries and lowering costs for American consumers.
None of these four measures have succeeded in breaking the oil price surge. As LSEG senior analyst Emril Jamil put it on Friday: "ICE Brent futures have already breached $100 per barrel and are still supported today, despite moves to calm the markets with the Russian oil waiver and the unprecedented release of emergency stockpiles."
Why Oil Refuses To Come Down — The Hormuz Factor
The reason none of these measures have worked is simple: the real problem is not the amount of oil in storage. The problem is that Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz — and no amount of strategic reserve releases or sanctions waivers can fix that until the war ends or Iran decides to reopen the waterway.
On Thursday, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — delivering his first public statement since succeeding his father — made it crystal clear that the Hormuz closure is not going away anytime soon. Khamenei said Iran would "fight on" and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel. On the same day, two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were struck by explosive-laden Iranian boats, according to Iraqi security officials — a reminder that Iran's campaign of economic disruption through maritime attacks is continuing at full intensity.
Also on Thursday, oil prices hit their highest level since August 2022 — briefly touching nearly $120 per barrel on Monday before settling around $100 — as markets absorbed the reality that the world's most important oil shipping route could remain blocked for weeks or months.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted in a market brief on Friday that any fleeting relief sparked by the IEA stockpile release was "shattered by a re-escalation of Middle East risks" — a concise summary of the market's dilemma: Washington keeps announcing measures to ease supply fears, and Iran keeps doing something to blow them up.
Russia — The Unlikely Winner Of The Iran War
One of the most extraordinary and ironic consequences of the Iran war is that it has turned Russia into one of its biggest beneficiaries — despite Russia having nothing to do with the conflict.
Standard Chartered's analysis, published this week, concluded that Russia is the biggest economic winner from the Middle East war — because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dramatically increased the value of Russian oil and gas exports through alternative routes. Oil prices above $100 per barrel are a windfall for Moscow, which had been struggling under the weight of Western sanctions and the G7's $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian crude.
Bessent acknowledged the awkward reality directly in a podcast interview on Friday, saying it was "unfortunate" that Russia would financially benefit from the waiver — but argued the need to stabilise global energy markets justified the decision. He explained that the waiver was granted because "the Russian barrels are on the water, and it is a quick source for the Indian refineries." India — one of the world's largest oil importers — has been one of the biggest buyers of discounted Russian crude since the 2022 sanctions were imposed, and needs those stranded barrels urgently to keep its refineries running.
What This Means For Nigeria
For Nigeria, the week's oil price developments present the same double-edged reality that has been building since the war began. On paper, Nigeria's government is benefiting enormously. The country's 2026 budget was benchmarked at $75 per barrel — meaning every dollar above that level represents additional revenue for the Federal Government. With Brent crude trading above $100, Nigeria is earning tens of billions of naira more than budgeted on every shipment of crude it exports.
But for ordinary Nigerians, the picture is far more painful. Petrol prices have surged from below ₦800 per litre before the war to between ₦1,250 and ₦1,400 per litre at filling stations across Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and other major cities — with the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) warning that prices could reach ₦2,000 per litre if the war continues and crude stays above $100 per barrel.
The Dangote Refinery has revised its gantry price upward three times in less than two weeks — a rate of change in domestic fuel costs that Nigeria has not experienced since the subsidy removal shock of 2023. Transport fares have risen sharply. Food prices — which are heavily influenced by transport costs — are climbing again. And the naira, already under pressure from global dollar strength, faces additional headwinds as investors flee emerging market currencies during periods of global energy uncertainty.
As the world watches Washington and Tehran fight a war of nerves over the Strait of Hormuz, it is Nigerian bus drivers, market traders, and office workers who are paying the real price — one litre of petrol at a time.
In Pidgin: Oil Price Still Dey Rise Despite America Emergency Measures
Despite all the emergency actions wey America don take to reduce oil prices since the Iran war start, crude oil still dey head for big weekly gain as of Friday March 13, 2026. Brent crude dey around $100 per barrel — heading for nearly 9% increase for just one week.
To try to reduce the price, America don do four big things. Dem release 172 million barrels from their reserve. Dem coordinate with 32 countries to release 400 million barrels total. Dem say US Navy go protect ships for the Gulf. And on Thursday night, dem even allow countries to buy Russian oil wey dey stranded for sea — the same Russian oil wey dem ban since 2022 because of Ukraine war.
But nothing don work. Why? Because the real problem na say Iran don close the Strait of Hormuz — and until that waterway open again, oil go continue to dey expensive. Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei himself confirm on Thursday say dem go keep Hormuz closed.
The person wey dey benefit most from this whole situation na Russia — the country wey get nothing to do with this war. Their stranded oil suddenly dey very valuable again. America sef don allow people to buy am.
For Nigeria, petrol don reach ₦1,300 to ₦1,400 per litre for many filling stations. Transport fare don increase. Food price dey rise. And experts warn say petrol fit reach ₦2,000 per litre if the war continue. The people wey dey feel the real pain na ordinary Nigerians — not the oil companies, not the government.
Sources: Reuters, CNBC, Globe and Mail, IEA, LSEG, Standard Chartered — March 13, 2026